The cyclical pattern of the transition to democracy in Latin America

Introduction

Democratization in Latin America took place throughout the 1980s within a context of acute economic crisis, thus posing a sharp challenge to established theory. This essay examines alternative explanations--economic, political, institutional, international--for this paradoxical outcome. It is argued that the political impact of the debt crisis differs for the short, medium, and long terms. The analysis also devotes considerable attention to the concept of "democratization" and to the quality of Latin American democracies, which tend to contain pervasive authoritarian features. Careful reading of these phenomena can lay the foundation for new and enduring theoretical frameworks about the relationship between macroeconomic transformation and political change.

The cyclical pattern of the transition to democracy in Latin America

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The consolidation phase may be defined as the formation and maintenance of both valid democratic institutions anda democratic political culture. 15 This entails stability in rules and norms of electoral competition and acceptance of elections as the legitimate institution that ultimately determines who governs; as well as a party system with strong links with the most organizad interests within society. On the other hand, it also entails a socialization process which pursues the extension of democratic practicas and rules to all levels of society.

The cyclical pattern of the transition to democracy in Latin America

The temporal periods found in the process of democratization -:-liberalization, transition and consolidation- are not independent of each other; rather, they may overlap in time. For example, the liberalization stage may coincide with the initial phase of the transition process. Likewise, the uncertainty that characterizes the transition phase may be present in the process of consolidation. Thus, although this paperfocuses on the transition phase, it also encompasses the liberalization stage, but not the third phase at all. Democratic transitions revolve around four categories of phenomena: (1) pacts, (2) breakdowns among elites; (3) reforms orchestrated by the ruling elite; and (4) pressure exerted by popular and social mobilization.

The cyclical pattern of the transition to democracy in Latin America

Pacts are "normatively inspirad commitments"17 to set up the rules for the establishment of a democratic regime. There are traditionally three types of pacts: those between the military and civil elites; those between entrepreneurs and labor organizations; and, those among política! parties. Although these agreements ideally seek the incorporation of all the relevant actors to lay the foundations for a successor regime in which power is open to most opposition forces, in many cases, however, political actors prefer the continuation of political unrest, armed struggle and violent demonstrations. This is because pacts rarely grant optima! guarantees to all political actors.

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